In this report
Flow’s Pushed Up—Fish Will Be Concentrated, So Stealth Matters More
At 38 CFS, the Middle Fork above Spinney is running well above its typical low-water baseline of around 15 CFS. For a small headwater stream like this, that’s a genuine push—not a crisis, but a noticeable shift that changes how and where the trout will hold. The water temperature sitting at 34°F tells you we’re deep into late fall, and that combination means the fish aren’t spread across the meadow flats like they would be on a slow, clear week. They’ve consolidated into the deeper slots, the wood-lined bends, and anywhere else that gives them current relief and thermal stability without forcing them to work hard in cold water.
Here’s what that means practically: the open meadow stretches that normally hold scattered, cruising trout on a lower, clearer day are less rewarding right now. Those fish are there, but they’re spooked more easily in daylight, and the extra flow has them hugging structure. Your odds improve significantly in the tighter, deeper holding water—seams behind fallen timber, the deeper slots where current slows, and the inside bends where cold, oxygenated water pools. The trade-off is access; you’ll do more wading to reach those pockets, and your presentation window is tighter because the fish don’t have as much time to inspect your fly in slack water.
The elevated flow also means the water clarity is probably slightly off from perfect—not blown out, but carrying a thin veil of sediment from upstream runoff. That’s actually neutral for your purposes this week; it reduces how quickly the trout can identify drag or a bad drift, which is a small win on a stream where these fish are already wary.
Midges Remain the Anchor; BWO Possible on Warm Afternoons
Late November on freestone water is midge season, full stop. That doesn’t change here, and it’s your primary weapon. Black Beauty, Mercury Midge, and zebra midge patterns in #20–24 will represent the bulk of the natural food column, especially in the lower-light windows—early morning, late afternoon, and overcast spells. The elevated flow and cold water temperature mean the bugs are emerging slowly and sporadically; you’re not looking for dense hatches, but rather steady, sparse activity that rewards patience and precise presentation.
If the afternoon warms a few degrees and cloud cover builds, you’ll have a genuine chance at small black or olive BWOs in #22–24. It’s not a given—don’t plan the afternoon around it—but on this water, those overcast, slightly warmer windows do produce occasional mayfly interest. The difference between a dry-fly chance and a nymph-only afternoon often comes down to whether the sun is hidden and the temperature ticks up even 2 or 3 degrees.
The cold water temperature means emergers and soft hackles will outperform crisp dry flies in most conditions. A #22 RS2 emerger, or a thin-bodied zebra midge emerger, sits in the film where many of these midges are hatching, and it’s less dependent on a perfect rise than a tiny dry. If you do see fish taking on top—rare but possible—a #22 Black Beauty will work. But honestly, you’ll spend less time wasted on failed dry-fly attempts if you commit to emergers and deeper nymphs as your first choice.
The Rig That Works for This Flow and Temperature
Fish a two-fly setup: a heavier nymph on point, emerger or soft hackle on the dropper.
Point fly: A Barr’s-style anchor pattern—think #20 copper wire-wrapped black nymph or a small black stonefly nymph (#18–20)—gives you the weight you need to reach the deeper slots without constant false casting. The cold, pushing water means you have to get down fast and stay on bottom in the tight holding lies; a lighter nymph wastes your drift.
Dropper: Tie a #22–24 zebra midge emerger or RS2 emerger 18 to 20 inches up the tippet from the point fly. This is where you’ll often see the take; fish are keying on emerging midges right now, and the suspended position of the emerger is a sweet spot between bottom-sniffing and surface-feeding behavior.
Weight and split shot: Use your point fly’s inherent mass first. If you’re not reliably ticking bottom in the deeper slots, add one small split shot about 8 inches above the point fly. Don’t overload it; the goal is to reach depth and bounce lightly along the bottom, not drag dead weight. On a stream this size, even small adjustments in weight matter—one split shot is often enough.
Tippet: 5X fluorocarbon main, 6X to the emerger. The fluorocarbon sinks quickly, stays less visible in the cold, clear water, and gives you the sensitivity you need to feel subtle takes in nymphs this small. Trout here are not leader-shy, but they are easily startled by poor presentation, and light tippet helps you execute a drag-free drift longer.
Indicator vs. tight-line: Use a small yarn indicator on the main line, positioned about 1.5 times the water depth above your point fly. The elevated flow means you need visual feedback; tight-line nymphing works on slower, clearer days, but at 38 CFS with cold water and spooky fish in tight lies, an indicator lets you keep a genuinely dead drift without mending constantly. Watch for the slightest hesitation or slow rise—takes are often subtle on small midges.
Where to Spend Your Time
Focus on the deeper holding water: bends with outside current, slots behind deadfall, undercut banks, and anywhere the current creates a seam that holds fish without forcing them to fight full current. These pockets are your bread and butter this week.
The wide, open meadow flats are not worth the effort right now. At this flow and temperature, fish there are either spooked by wading or tucked tight to any structure available. You’ll cover more productive water by moving deliberately between the tight pockets than by working the open water.
Access and Fish Welfare Note
Both the Tomahawk and Badger Basin areas require a valid Colorado fishing license or SWA pass for anyone 16 and older. At 34°F, fish stress is not an acute concern this week, but handle any trout you land gently and promptly; cold water slows their recovery, and fighting fatigue matters more when the water is this cold. Keep your time on the fish brief, wet your hands before handling, and return fish headfirst into moving current.
Be aware that seasonal closures apply to this stretch for spawning protection. Check current regulations before heading out; if you encounter posted closure signs, respect them without exception.